A couple weeks ago, I analyzed the Uganda Open pros scores. In that analysis, the numbers were clear that par 5s were the key to that tournament. This week, I do the 2022-23 Safari Tour Limuru leg analysis. It’s really interesting what the numbers show. But the final take away is that one has to understand each course and plan to play it based on its challenges.
The Winning Score
Nyasha Muyambo from Zimbabwe took is maiden Safari Tour win at Limuru with a score of 6 under. Over 4 rounds, he shot -4 on par 5s and -4 on par 4s while shooting +2 on par 3s. This is a very different story from what the statistics from Serena showed us where par 5s gave away a lot of cumulative under scores.
Limuru par 5s might look tame, but they bite and require more accuracy than length as compared to Serena. They might not be as long, but any slight miss out of the fairway is penal. In fact there almost the same number of eagles on par 4s as there were on par 5s in LImuru (6 vs 7). Par 4 hole number 6 yielded the most eagles for the week with 5 while par 4 number 9 had 1 eagle. For par 5s, hole number 3 yielded the most eagles for the week with 4 followed by 2 on hole 15 and 1 on hole 18. Needless to say, par 5 hole number 4 in Limuru is not one to yield eagles easily if ever. To prove its teeth, par 5 hole 4 only yielded 1 birdie to the 23 best players on the field over the last 2 rounds of the tournament.
On the other hand, par 3s proved to be problematic in Limuru just as they were in Serena. There was no player on the field who played a cumulative under par score on par 3s over 4 rounds.
Overall Tournament Analysis
Therefore, success in Limuru revolved around minimizing damage on Par 3s and maximizing the scoring opportunities on par 4s. Revealing stats to support this comes from the two player to tied for third, Mike Kisia and Robson Chinhoi. Kisia was 7 under on par 4s, level on par 5s and a whooping 7 over on par 3s. Chinhoi, on the other hand was -6 on par 5s, -1 on par 4s but also 7 over on par 3s.
Day 1 Analysis
On day 1, par 4 hole 13 was the hardest hole with an average score of 4.66. It was followed closes by par 4 hole number 10 with a 4.53 average score. The drivable par 4 hole 11 was the easiest hole for the day with 3.95 average score. Par 4 number 9 was the second easiest holes with a 3.97 average score.
Day 2 Analysis
The easiest hole on day one (par 4, hole 11) turned to be the hardest hole on day 2 with an average score of 4.68. This was clearly courtesy of the pin placement. Hole number 13 seeded just one spot but was easily the second hardest hole with an average score of 4.63. The treacherous par 4, hole 17 was third with 4.53 scoring average. Par 5 hole 3 was the easies hole with a 4.75 average score. Par 4 hole number 9 was the second easier hole for the 2nd day running with a 3.90 average score.
Day 3 Analysis
Par 4 hole 13 reclaimed its status as the hardest hole on day 3 with a 4.57 average score. While par 4 hole 10 again came in second like the first day with a 4.48 average score. And like day one again, par 3 hole 7 was third hardest hole. The easiest hole was par 5 number 3 with an average score of 4.7. It was followed closely with par 5 hole 15 with an average score of 4.91.
Day 4 Analysis
Interestingly par 5 hole 4 and par 3 hole 14 shared the honors of being the hardest holes on the final day with an average score of 0.61 above their respective pars. Of note, the par 5 hole 4 yielded zero birdies for the best players. Par 4 hole 12 was third hardest hole with 4.48 average score. The final hole par 5 hole 18 was the easiest hole on the final day with average score of 4.57 while par 5 hole 3 was second easiest hole with a 4.65 average score.
Conclusion
Even though it seemed that Nyasha cruised to an easy win at 6 under, it would have been wider margin had he putted well on day 1 and 2. For example, on day 2 Nyasha hit 15 greens in regulation but came with 39 (yes 39) putts for the round. It would be very interesting to see how such stats like putting and fairway hits would translate to the scores. However, these are stats that Safari Tour does not currently collect and thus we cannot analyze at the moment.
Well done on superb analysis